Silver And Farrell Release Assembly Revenue
And Economic Forecasts For 2008-09

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Ways and Means Committee Chair Herman "Denny" Farrell, Jr. today released the Assembly's annual revenue and economic forecast reports for New York State. The documents' release is a key step to the Assembly's analysis of the state's fiscal standing and in the process of working with the Governor and the Senate to craft a timely and responsible state budget.

The revenue report All Funds forecast for 2008-09 is $667 million less than the Executive, reflecting a less optimistic view of overall conditions in both the state and national economies. The lower revenues are expected primarily as a result of smaller personal and corporate income tax collections. The report estimates total 2007-08 tax collections at $52 million higher than the Executive, so total available resources for 2008-09 are expected to be $615 million less than the Executive.

Citing a range of factors including high energy costs, housing market problems and the resulting credit crunch, the Assembly Ways and Means Committee staff is predicting a relatively mild and short recession in the coming year, and the state's economy is expected to slow considerably from last year.

"New York and other parts of the nation are in the midst of a significant economic slowdown that is being felt by everyone from low-income wage earners to small business owners to the largest financial services firms. The sub-prime mortgage crisis is impacting communities throughout the state, with ripple effects in crucial sectors of the state's economy," Silver said. "As we face a recession, it is vital that we understand where New York stands financially. The Assembly is committed to working with the Executive and the Senate to draft a budget that fulfills our commitments to education, health, economic development and public protection."

"Rising foreclosures, a reduction in personal credit and soaring energy prices have stretched thin the spending power of New York's residents and businesses. At the same time, Wall Street and the financial sector are not expected to generate the level of growth in tax revenues that we have seen in previous years," Farrell said. "These factors create real challenges that we must address as we ensure that all New Yorkers continue to have access to decent education and affordable health care and receive other essential services."

According to the report, there is uncertainty about the state's economic outlook for 2008, in large part due to Wall Street's recent underperformance and the prospect of smaller annual bonus payments to employees in the financial services sector. Overall employment and wage growth are expected to slow, and manufacturing job losses are expected to continue.

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Click here to view the Economic Report

Click here to view the Revenue Report